Why is a strong dollar not good for Bitcoin?

Everyone wants to see the strength of the dollar, but is it really positive?

The usefulness of a fiat currency lies primarily in its stability. The ideal is a fair compromise.  In this case, the shortage of supply is not the most important thing. What is important is that the monetary supply reflects the amount of goods and services available at any given time. In other words, production and currency must be synchronized in order to have price stability. In the case of speculative assets, the opposite is true. A scarce asset increases in value with increasing demand. But even the most scarce asset can fall in price, if demand falls due to a lack of liquidity. Why do so many Bitcoiners promote a strong dollar? 

Here is a great irony. The Bitcoin community celebrates the shortage of Bitcoin and welcomes the arrival of new buyers. But it is generally critical of cash injections. We must remember that this is a community obsessed with the price of Bitcoin. It’s our bread and butter to read a new price forecast. It’s said that Bitcoin will reach $40K very soon. But then it will easily reach $250k. And after that, it’ll keep going up like crazy.

Now, you could say that Bitcoin is priceless. We say informally that it has a price, but in reality the term is not the most appropriate. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. It’s a crypt currency and what it really has is an exchange rate. And, at the moment, its most important pair is the US dollar. A currency always exists in relation to other assets. Does a medium of exchange without exchange make sense? That would be absurd.

Exchange is the life of a currency. The dollar, for example, is closely related to the domestic production of the United States and the rate of other currencies. If there is too much money, inflation will be triggered. If there is too little money, deflation sets in. If the dollar rises in value relative to other currencies, exports suffer. If the dollar falls in value in relation to other currencies, the price of imports rises.

The stability of the dollar is important for the US economy and world trade. And that means moving away from extremes. Deflation and inflation. Strength and weakness. The adjective „strong“ is generally regarded as positive. And one could assume that all countries wish to have a strong currency. But here we must make an important distinction. We could say that a currency is strong if it is stable and has a high level of adoption. Such a currency makes a sound financial market possible.

On the other hand, the adjective „strong“ can be used in a slightly different sense.  „Strong“ in this context does not mean stability. What it means is lack of liquidity. This leads to a fall in demand, reduced spending and depreciation of assets. It also hurts exports and makes imports more expensive. This scenario decreases revenues. Consequently, unemployment increases and the economy decreases.

This contradicts many of the public’s assumptions about the economy and money. Of course, this does not mean that it is false. What it really means is that the average person understands very little about economics. 

Counter-cultural movements have traditionally promoted savings and discouraged spending.  That is, materialism and excess. This discussion is perfectly valid. And everyone has the right to choose their own lifestyle.  However, in this article I will limit myself to describing the economic fact. I will do so as one who describes the processes of a machine.

Spending has a twin brother. That is, one cannot live without the other. I mean the brothers, expenditure and income. Because one man’s expenditure is another man’s income. In other words, the economy requires transactions. And economic growth needs money to circulate.  This does not mean that we should all become consumerists. What it really means is that, from a financial point of view, the smartest thing to do is to become an investor.

The investor is different from the saver.The saver accumulates dollars. The investor invests in assets. The saver discourages spending and wants a strong currency. But without spending there is no income. And without income, there is no employment. Therefore, the economy does not grow. On the other hand, the investor wants economic growth, because his investments depend on the success of the economy. Liquidity injections raise the price of assets. Then we have jobs, growth and investments. But with a stable currency. 

Of course, there is still a discontented minority of investors who want to return to the past. Historically, in the promotion of the saver we have right-wing groups and left-wing groups. But in the case of the crypto community, this current comes to us from the American right. The libertarians, in particular. This is a position that derives from classical liberalism and goes back to the time of Thomas Jefferson. Their hero is the self-sufficient individual, inspired by the Yeoman farmers and the pioneers. It is an ultra-conversational vision that promotes the separation of the state and the economy. As well as the return to the gold standard. The current still lives in a very small wing of the Republican Party (remember Ron Paul?) and in the Libertarian Party. And in economic matters they rely heavily on the Austrian school and the Chicago school. 

Of course, I am afraid that this is more of a political than an economic movement. I mean, these ideas are more popular among libertarians than among contemporary economists. In the investment world, these ideas are still alive in many gold beetles and many bitcoiners. Wall Street, for example, has fully subscribed to the path of the investor. But not just Wall Street. The way of the investor is the way of governments, the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, the banks, the multilateral organisations, the big corporations and, above all, the Federal Reserve.

However, a medium of exchange cannot claim to be totally autonomous. That would be pointless. It is like having a dollar note and saying that its exchange value is irrelevant. That is like buying a watch and not caring whether it gives the time or not. Or, it’s like creating a language that only its creator understands. 

I must confess that I personally do care about the price of Bitcoin. I’m not satisfied with the idea that a Bitcoin is a Bitcoin. Would it be worth a ton of gold or $100 million on a desert island? An apple can be an apple, because I can eat the apple. Because with money I can meet my needs, such as housing, food and so on. A strong dollar does not increase the price of Bitcoin.Employment, economic growth, production and liquidity do increase the price of Bitcoin. That’s why I choose the path of the investor.